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BASELINE ENROLLMENT PROJECTION ESTIMATES

FOR THE VERNON-VERONA-SHERRILL SCHOOL DISTRICT

BASED ON ENROLLMENT/LIVE BIRTH PATTERNS

FROM 2018-2019 THROUGH 2023-2024

April, 2024

Dear Martha and Mark:

What follows are the results of a baseline analysis of possible future VVS School District enrollments based on

patterns of historical enrollments and live births through 2023-2024. The ‘pictures’ tell the baseline story as a

tool to help begin future planning. The estimates will be updated as may be appropriate with information I

learn from the codes/planning officials of the towns and from the local realtor contacts, if applicable. The

final study document will include the data, the charts/graphs, and prose analysis.

As per NYS SED Facility Planning practice, note that the enrollment projections are benchmarked for planning

to the estimated K-6 enrollments five years from now in 2028-2029. K-6 enrollment estimates for years

further in the future (plus five years) have inherent uncertainties because the assumptions on which they are

based can be affected by changes in human behavior, by the economy, or by other events, and the low validity

of estimated live birth numbers more than five years into the future. Projections in the study for grades 7-12

have planning validity up to ten years into the future; and, grades 7-8 up to eight years into the future. The

projections do offer a starting point for analyzing and understanding the elements of future school district

demographic change as the district develops its program vision.

The Cohort Survival Statistic is used as required by Commissioner’s Regulation 155.1. Because cohort survival

ratios are applied to an incoming kindergarten cohort and then applied to grade 1 and the following grades,

the estimate of future kindergarten enrollments has a large impact on overall long-term enrollment

projections. The data reported includes three methods of analyzing historical trends and patterns specific to

potential future VVS kindergarten enrollments. The three kindergarten cohort estimation methods are:

✓ Trend analysis of the pattern of the last six years of kindergarten enrollments and estimating the next

five years of kindergarten enrollments assuming the six-year historical pattern continues without

reference to the historical live birth pattern.

✓ Trend analysis of the pattern of live births in the district over the past ten years and applying the

kindergarten-live birth ratio of all births and K enrollments from 2014-2023.

✓ Trend analysis of the pattern of live births in the district over the past six years and applying the

average kindergarten-live birth ratio for the six school years from 2018-2023.

These beginning analysis ‘pictures’ give all a chance to think about the patterns of enrollments over the past

ten years. They will help support a local data-driven discussion about how the enrollments expected over the

next five to ten years may influence the program vision, staffing, facility use/capacity, and the financials of the

VVS school district.

The projections suggest that at best, based on historical patterns over the past ten years, K-6 enrollment may

remain around 860 pupils over then next five years. Grades 7-8 enrollment may decline by about 20 pupils

over the next eight years. Grades 9-12 enrollment may decline by about 100 students over the next ten years.

Unknown, at this time, is how economic development and/or increased family housing may influence these

baseline enrollment projections positively with increased child-bearing population. Similarly, a downturn in

economic development or family housing may also influence the baseline projections negatively with

decreased community child-bearing population.

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The charts that follow summarzie the updated April 2024 enrollment projections and relate those projections

to the pupil capacities of each elementary school building as the program is deployed in 2023-2024.

Sincerely,

Paul M. Seversky

Calculation Year Grades K-4 Grads 5-6 Grades 7-8 Grades 9-12

CURRENT

ENROLLMENT

2023-2024 596 260 273 594

Grades K-6: 856

BASELINE ENROLLMENT PROJECTION ESTIMATES

Baseline Cohort

Scenario X

Methodology: Past 6-year

pattern of K enrollments

Year Grades K-4 Grads 5-6 Grades 7-8 Grades 9-12

2026-2027 534 236 275 536

Grades K-6: 770

2028-2029 484 232 241 532

Grades K-6: 716

2031-2032 229 507

2033-2034 468

Baseline Cohort

Scenario Y

Methodology: Past 6-year

pattern of live births and 6-

year average kindergarten- live birth ratio

2026-2027 606 236 275 536

Grades K-6: 842

2028-2029 628 232 241 532

Grades K-6: 860

2031-2032 253 507

2033-2034 492

Baseline Cohort

Scenario Z

Methodology: Past 10-year

pattern of live births and

10-year kindergarten-live

birth ratio

2026-2027 614 235 275 536

Grades K-6: 849

2028-2029 631 231 241 532

Grades K-6: 862

2031-2032 256 486

2033-2034 495

Highlighted estimates follow SED planning guidelines with regard to applying enrollment projections to plan anticipated space needs

in the future.